Market Focus Next Week on Trump's Middle East Decisions and Federal Reserve Rate Hike Impact

Next week, global markets will digest the aftermath of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate hike since 2023 and reprice for a higher and longer rate path. Trump is expected to meet with Gulf countries during the United Nations General Assembly and make significant decisions regarding whether to escalate actions against Iran; Saudi Arabia's capital has sounded air defense alarms again after several months, with oil market risk premiums and actual supply adjustments pulling against each other; Japan enters a long holiday for Silver Week, with low liquidity compounded by pressure on the yen, raising expectations for policy intervention. Key events are as follows: On Tuesday, Trump will meet with Gulf countries in New York during the UN General Assembly and make significant decisions regarding Iran policy; the U.S. Treasury will auction $69 billion in two-year Treasury bonds; New York Fed President Williams and Fed Vice Chair Jefferson will speak. On Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury will auction $70 billion in five-year Treasury bonds; Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak. On Thursday, the U.S. Treasury will auction $44 billion in seven-year Treasury bonds; the European Central Bank will release its economic bulletin; several Fed presidents will speak. On Friday, the final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for September and the final value of one-year inflation expectations will be released; New York Fed President Williams will speak again.

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