Pressure on the Hryvnia in September 2026: Dollar and Euro Exchange Rate Forecast

In September 2026, the currency market in Ukraine is expected to experience pressure on the hryvnia due to negative factors and high demand for foreign currency. Financial analyst Andriy Shevchishin noted that September is traditionally a month of hryvnia depreciation against the dollar. Risks are heightened due to port blockades and strikes on logistics, which affect currency supply. Demand for foreign currency will remain high due to imports of goods and the needs of the defense industry. Shevchishin predicts that the population will increase demand for foreign currency due to devaluation expectations and relocation risks for the winter period. Key issues for the currency market in September include the possibility of hryvnia weakening by the NBU, the influence of the euro on the dollar, and the stability of external aid. The baseline scenario suggests a worsening economic situation with the dollar exchange rate around 45 UAH, fluctuating between 45.20 and 46.00 UAH. The cash euro is forecasted to be in the range of 51.20 to 52.50 UAH. An optimistic scenario with a 15% probability is possible if maritime exports recover and oil prices decrease. As of August 31, the official exchange rate for the dollar is set at 44.55 UAH, and for the euro at 51.88 UAH.

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