Market Downturn: Which Assets Are Worth Watching?

Original Title: The「Investible」Crypto Tokens

Original Author: Ignas, DeFi Analyst

Original Translation: Saoirse, Foresight News

CoinGecko tracks 17,148 tokens.

But in the current crypto market environment, how many tokens truly meet the following criteria to be considered 「investible」?

1. Can provide returns to the holder;

2. Have protocol revenue, even if not yet distributed;

3. Strong narrative and market recognition to survive a bear market.

I tried to figure this out.

Most of the data is from DefiLlama, CoinMarketCap, and some protocols reflecting market heat (Dexu, Moni, Lunarcrush, etc.).

I used Claude Code to process the data, trying to minimize personal bias—

I would have originally excluded some tokens (such as XRP, ADA, BCH, etc.), but they have gone through multiple cycles and have sustained vitality due to sufficient liquidity.

Claude still made many mistakes, and debugging took 10 times longer than writing the article, so the tabular data is for reference only (link at the end of the article).

Final Results:

· A total of 12 categories, 132 investible tokens were filtered;

· Among them, 45 tokens provide dividends to holders (excluding those with very low returns);

· Annualized returns to holders: $1.8 billion.

These classifications are entirely based on my subjective judgment of 「survivability and future potential,」 which you may disagree with.

First Key Finding: The truly investible crypto market is tiny.

And tokens that can actually make holders money are almost monopolized by two projects. Details will follow below.

It's funny that, in the process of organizing this list and checking each token one by one, I came to this conclusion:

After much consideration on how to navigate the crypto space, reviewing old and new tokens, and researching new narratives, I believe the most optimal risk-reward ratio (R/R) in the crypto world is:

Directly buying Bitcoin (BTC).

Then using "play money" to continuously try out new crypto protocols while consistently learning to use AI tools.

New opportunities will always arise.

Most Investment-Worthy Token: Revenue-Sharing Category

The current market's mainstream narrative is:

A project without revenue will eventually die!

Even ETH finds it hard to escape this "value by revenue" narrative.

Therefore, the most investable tokens are those that can distribute revenue to holders through buybacks, burns, fee sharing, etc.

I've set the threshold at: DefiLlama 30-Day Holder Revenue ≥ $50,000.

These 45 tokens bring holders $153 million in revenue monthly,

with a total annualized revenue of $1.8 billion.

Top 10 Revenue Shares:

Note: Revenue share ≠ Holder revenue on DefiLlama.

For example: EtherFi doesn't make the holder revenue list, but it has buybacks.

L1 chains like Tron have been categorized separately.

After the top five, monthly revenue quickly drops to below $3 million.

If the crypto market continues toward the logic of "tokens = stocks,"

So the P/S (Price-to-Sales, Market Cap / Revenue) ratio will become increasingly important.

· Pump.fun: 1.4x

· Aerodrome: 3.4x

By traditional financial standards, these are extremely cheap.

Based on current revenue pace, the entire market cap could be recouped in less than 3 years.

However:

· Uniswap: P/S as high as 121x

· Aave: P/S even at 341x

Because the market has valued them far beyond "current returns."

Aave recently started buybacks finally, distributing only $412k per month, whereas the protocol generates $10m in monthly revenue. Subsequent governance changes could alter this.

Lowest P/S Ratio Tokens:

· Farcaster's Clanker: 0.9x

· ORE: 0.9x

· Yield Basis: 0.8x

· Pump.fun: 1.4x

· QuickSwap: 1.4x

All of these could recoup their market cap in 3 years based on revenue.

Key Takeaway:

Hyperliquid + Pump.fun = 69% of total holder revenue!

Among 45 tokens, only two projects contribute over 2/3 of the cash flow.

This level of concentration is very worth considering.

Ansem's tweet nicely summarizes the HYPE investment thesis:

HYPE:

· Business on a growth trajectory, with token closely tied to revenue;

· Possessing diversified growth levers;

· Existing comparable projects perform well;

· Benefit from a market environment with high-quality token scarcity and funds flowing to top projects;

· Strong team execution, steady pace, and impressive track record.

Has Protocol Revenue, But Has Not Enabled Dividends

This category consists of 16 tokens, with monthly protocol revenue ≥ $100,000, which is retained in the treasury.

Top Projects:

· Lido: $4.3 million per month, TVL $32 billion (previously proposed staking dividends last year);

· CoW Protocol: $3 million per month;

· Meteora (Solana): $2 million per month;

· Virtuals Protocol: $1.4 million per month;

· Drift: $868,000 per month.

The comparison between Lido and ether.fi is quite interesting:

· Lido has a TVL that is 10 times higher and revenue that is 3 times higher, but LDO holders don't receive a cent;

· ether.fi distributes $1.5 million to holders monthly through buybacks.

If you were to go through a bear market, you would want to be with the one that can give you money.

The investment logic for these targets is:

These protocols will sooner or later enable the "dividends switch."

Lido has been talking about it for many years.

Jito has total monthly fees of $5.3 million, but only $544,000 enters the treasury.

The gap between total fees and holder earnings is both an opportunity and a risk.

Overview of Other Sectors

Exchange platform tokens (7 tokens, total market value $990 billion, including BNB)

You can make money regardless of market conditions. CEX trading volume may decrease, but it will not go to zero.

· BNB: $850 billion;

· LEO, OKB hardly dropped during the 2022, 2024 bear markets.

Many have buyback programs, just not reflected in DefiLlama data.

CEX tokens have a high circulation ratio, further reducing downside risk.

L1 Blockchains (19, total market cap $1.8 trillion)

L1 is the base layer.

· BTC: $1.36 trillion

· ETH: $245 billion

I have relaxed standards for XRP, ADA, especially Cosmos, as they have survived multiple cycles, have believers and liquidity, and demonstrate enduring vitality.

You may dislike TRON TRX, but it generates $26 million in monthly fees—more than Solana and Ethereum.

It has also shown strong performance this cycle; you can check the candlestick chart yourself.

L1 blockchains will not disappear, but valuation fluctuations will be significant. Trade at your own risk.

AI & Computing (8, total market cap $5.1 billion)

Most have no actual revenue, except for one:

Venice (VVV): The only AI token supported by subscription and API revenue for buyback and burn, with 43% of the supply already burned.

· Bittensor: $1.9 billion market cap, 128 subnets, no protocol revenue;

· Render, Akash: Sell GPU computing power cheaper than centralized platforms;

· Grass: Provides decentralized network data for AI training.

Note: Some AI tokens not listed are currently experiencing a surge and may be suitable for short-term trading, but whether they are "investable" is debatable.

RWA Asset Tokenization (7, total market cap $13.5 billion)

Growing quietly, I believe the real RWA bull market has yet to come.

The Canton Network holds 88.57% of on-chain RWA, approximately $372 billion in tokenized assets. However, real-world assets are not as simple as they may seem on the surface.

Chainlink is the key oracle for RWAs, but LINK staking rewards come from inflation and a fixed reward pool, not protocol revenue sharing.

Chainlink revenue is solid, but flows to node operators and the treasury, not directly to holders.

Privacy Coins (2, total market cap $97 billion)

High-risk track: either increasingly important with tightening regulations or outright bans.

But regardless of the bull or bear, the demand remains stable.

· Monero: $6.2 billion

· Zcash: $3.6 billion

Meme Coins (6, total market cap $208 billion)

Categorizing them as "investable" may be controversial.

But like Bitcoin, they survive on community.

· DOGE: $15.2 billion market cap, in existence for over a decade;

· SHIB, PEPE, BONK, FLOKI, WIF are also on the list.

If the market rebounds, they may outperform high-yield tokens.

Because there is no income ceiling, there is no cap either.

And they are almost all in circulation, with little selling pressure.

Other Categories

· L2 Chains (7, total market cap $37 billion);

· DeFi Protocols (5, total market cap $5 billion): decentralized storage, data oracles;

· Oracles / Infrastructure (7, total market cap $18 billion);

· Stablecoin Infrastructure (4, total market cap $11 billion): Ethena leading.

Super Profitable Projects Without Tokens

Some of the most profitable crypto businesses have no investable tokens at all.

· Tether: Annual revenue of over $6 billion, more than the sum of those 45 income tokens, all go to shareholders;

· Polymarket: Monthly revenue of $3.8 million, no native token;

· Base: Revenue goes to Coinbase shareholders, potential future token issuance;

· Phantom: Millions of users, very high fees;

· Circle: Issuer of USDC, revenue reflected in IPO;

· Kalshi: CFTC-regulated, no native token;

· Farcaster: Acquired, expected significant airdrop reduction, but possible future token issuance.

So, how to use this information?

Ideal holdings in a bear market meet four criteria:

1. Have holder revenue

2. Low P/S ratio (market cap / revenue)

3. High MC/FDV (circulating market cap / fully diluted valuation)

4. Sustained stable demand

Very few tokens meet all criteria.

Closest candidates:

· PUMP: 1.4x P/S, 33% MC/FDV

· AERO: 3.4x, 50%

· JUP: 7.3x, 51%

· SKY: 16x, 98%

· CAKE: 15.1x, 96%

Low-risk picks:

Exchange platform tokens: LEO, OKB, GT

Almost fully circulating, supported by exchange platform profit buybacks, most stable performance in a bear market.

High-risk high-reward:

HYPE: Leading in revenue but only 25% MC/FDV.

After Coingecko's new stats excluding long-term non-circulating and burned tokens, it dropped to 41%.

Trading opportunities:

Watch for governance changes:

Bet on projects with revenue but no dividend distribution yet, turn on the "dividend switch".

Key focus:

Lido, Meteora, Drift, CoW Protocol

Everything else is a matter of faith.

Do you believe in AI computation on-chain?

Do you believe RWA tokenization will continue to grow?

I believe it will, but are these tokens the right bet?

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