Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: Non-Farm Payrolls Test September Rate Hike Expectations, G20 Central Bank Governors Reunite, Broadcom and Dell Earnings Follow AI Trading

On August 30, the market will welcome the U.S. non-farm payroll report, the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting, and the Federal Reserve's release of the Beige Book next week. Among these, the U.S. employment report for August, to be released on Friday, is the last non-farm data before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting on September 16, and it will be a key point for testing the expectations of a rate hike in September.

A Reuters survey shows that the market expects an increase of 58,000 in U.S. non-farm payrolls for August, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1% and average hourly earnings rising by 0.2% month-on-month. If employment data continues to weaken, the market may reassess the urgency of a rate hike in September; if the data shows that the labor market remains resilient, expectations for a rate hike may further solidify. Current market pricing indicates that the probability of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve in September has risen to nearly 60%, with the probability of a rate hike before December exceeding 90%.

In addition, the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting will be held from Monday to Tuesday in Asheville, North Carolina, USA. This is another major appearance of global central bank governors following the Jackson Hole annual meeting, and statements regarding inflation and monetary policy from various parties will be noteworthy. The Federal Reserve will also release the last Beige Book before the September interest rate meeting. In summary, the key macroeconomic events for next week are as follows:

Monday to Tuesday: G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting;

Tuesday 21:45: U.S. releases the final value of the August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI; 22:00: U.S. releases the August ISM Manufacturing PMI;

Wednesday 20:15: U.S. releases August ADP employment numbers; 21:45: Bank of Canada releases interest rate decision, with the market expecting it to maintain the rate at 2.25%;

Thursday 02:00: Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions; 20:30: U.S. releases initial jobless claims; Federal Reserve Governor Waller gives an interview; 22:00: U.S. releases August ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI;

Friday 03:00: 2026 FOMC voting member and Cleveland Fed President Harker gives a speech; 20:30: U.S. releases August non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate.

In terms of earnings reports, second-quarter results will be announced after the U.S. stock market closes on Tuesday, with the market expecting adjusted earnings per share of $4.91; third-quarter results for fiscal year 2026 will be announced after the U.S. stock market closes on Wednesday, with the market expecting revenue of about $29.4 billion and earnings per share of $3.24. The performance and guidance of both companies will further test the demand for AI servers, custom chips, and networking equipment.

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