Budget 2027: If the Assembly Rejects the Revenues on Tuesday, the Stablecoin Tax Will Be Scrapped

A narrow margin, one more vote. On Tuesday afternoon, November 3, deputies will vote on the first part of the 2027 finance bill, which concerns revenues. The fate of the only crypto measure adopted in session hangs in the balance. This measure involves the end of the tax exemption on conversions to stablecoins, narrowly voted on October 16 and detailed in our report on the stablecoin tax. Key points of this article:

• Deputies narrowly voted to end the tax exemption on conversions to stablecoins, a measure that could come into effect as early as January 2027.
• Tuesday's vote will determine whether this controversial measure, adopted by 38 votes to 37, will be maintained or abandoned.

Stablecoin Tax: 38 Votes Against 37, Everything Replays on Tuesday

Quick reminder. The amendment I-3898 by communist deputy Nicolas Sansu removes the tax exemption on exchanges of cryptocurrencies for stablecoins compliant with MiCA (the European regulation on crypto-assets). In practical terms, converting ether to USDC would thus become a taxable event starting January 1, 2027. The flat tax of 31.4% would apply even without a euro arriving in your bank account.

The text passed with 38 votes against 37, with 25 abstentions. However, deputies did not retain other crypto amendments at this stage: extending the exit tax to crypto assets over 800,000 euros, and declaring self-held wallets exceeding 100,000 euros. Thus, only one measure remains, but it is suspended pending Tuesday's vote.

Budget 2027: The 3 Scenarios of the Solemn Vote

First scenario, adoption. Deputies vote on the revenue part with its amendments, including the stablecoin tax. They then have until November 17 to examine the expenditures. Then comes the back-and-forth with the Senate, which may remove or rewrite the measure.

Second scenario, rejection. This is not theoretical: last year, the Assembly rejected its revenue part by 404 votes to 1. In this case, deputies do not examine the second part. It is then the initial text from the government that goes to the Senate, according to the procedure recalled by the Journal du Net. All amendments voted by deputies fall with it. Thus, the stablecoin tax would disappear unless a senator reintroduces it.

Third scenario, forceful passage. Sébastien Lecornu bets on a compromise "in December." Failing a final vote, the government still has 49.3 in reserve. And if Parliament has not decided by December 18, there remains the route of budgetary ordinances, never used under the Fifth Republic.

A Context That Does Not Favor Adoption

First, the Minister of Public Accounts David Amiel estimates that the amendments voted in session deepen the deficit by 10 billion euros. This moves away from the goal of 5% of GDP in 2027. Next, deputies have examined fewer than 800 of the more than 3,000 amendments submitted. Finally, they have already rejected the revenue part of the Social Security budget on October 23.

For crypto holders, Tuesday's vote does not settle anything definitively: a rejection sends the ball back to the Senate, which has already voted for the CARF, the automatic exchange of tax data on crypto accounts held abroad.

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