BTC Breakthrough Validity to be Verified, Spot Demand Becomes Key Variable

On September 4, Chloe, a columnist for HTX DeepThink and a researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that the current market is not unilaterally bullish but has shifted from a bear market structure to a critical trend confirmation phase. The macro focus is shifting from inflation to employment: if employment continues to weaken and core inflation continues to improve, the Federal Reserve will have room to shift from pausing interest rate hikes to cutting rates, which could become the biggest potential liquidity catalyst for risk assets in the fourth quarter.

However, BTC has entered a dense supply zone of $81,000 to $86,000, and any subsequent rise must be driven by real spot demand rather than a short squeeze. The previous rise from $60,000 to $80,000 was accompanied by about $3 billion in short liquidations, with open interest subsequently decreasing by about 11% and funding rates remaining neutral, indicating that the leverage structure is not crowded, but also means that most of the short squeeze momentum has been consumed. More concerning is that despite BTC breaking above $81,000 again, there was still a slight net outflow of about $46 million from U.S. spot BTC ETFs in the first three trading days of September, contrasting sharply with the inflow of over $2.8 billion during the eight consecutive days of the breakout phase in August. Therefore, the current market is closer to a "price breakout attempt" rather than a confirmed new bull market.

The baseline scenario (about 50%) is that BTC will consolidate with high volatility between $78,000 and $86,000, and only if it effectively stabilizes above $83,300 on the daily chart, along with continuous net inflows into ETFs and an expansion in spot trading volume, will it have a better chance of opening up the $90,000 to $100,000 space. In the optimistic scenario (about 25%), if CPI is significantly lower than expected, employment weakens rapidly, and U.S. Treasury yields decline, the market will shift directly from "pausing interest rate hikes" to trading on "the next rate cut," and BTC may quickly enter the $90,000 to $100,000 range after breaking $86,000. The pessimistic scenario (about 25%) is that CPI rises again due to oil prices, tariffs, or service inflation, leading the market to raise the probability of interest rate hikes, forming a phase top at $81,000 to $86,000; the support levels below are $78,000 and $75,000 to $76,000, and if $75,000 is lost, the range of $71,800 to $72,000 will be the truly important defense line for this breakout structure, corresponding to a pullback of about 11% to 12%. In this case, ETH, SOL, and small-cap altcoins will typically amplify BTC's decline.

In the next two months, what is more worth tracking is not simply the BTC price, but whether the price, spot trading volume, ETF fund flows, open interest, and funding rates, as well as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield can confirm simultaneously. The strongest bullish signal is BTC breaking through $86,000 with significant ETF net inflows, while open interest and funding rates do not heat up simultaneously; the most concerning scenario is BTC continuing to rise around $83,000 to $86,000, but with declining trading volume and ETF inflows, and rapid accumulation of leverage—this will create a typical divergence between price increases and spot demand.

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