Benson Sun Predicts Bitcoin Will Experience a Slow Bull Trend

Benson Sun expects that Bitcoin's current market trend will show a gradual upward trajectory, reaching new highs slowly, rather than experiencing the rapid short-term surges followed by clear peaks seen in 2013 and 2017. Before the true cycle peak arrives, the market may exhibit multiple local peak signals. He points out that since 2021, the main buyers of Bitcoin have gradually shifted to public companies, spot ETFs, and corporate treasuries, with institutions primarily purchasing spot Bitcoin, while some funds employ Delta Neutral strategies for arbitrage. Traditional indicators such as funding rates and MVRV Z-Score may not rise to extreme levels again at the cycle peak; instead, the recent cycle peak is more likely to manifest as a lack of follow-through from institutional funds rather than an overall overheating of retail sentiment. The Institutional Liquidity Index (ILI) is used to determine whether institutional funds are keeping pace with Bitcoin's new highs; if Bitcoin sets a new rolling 30-day high while the ILI does not rise in tandem, it constitutes a yellow divergence. If Bitcoin breaks its historical high and the ILI diverges and falls below 50, it constitutes a red divergence. Benson Sun states that when a yellow divergence occurs, he will appropriately reduce positions in altcoins and leverage, gradually increasing the proportion of Bitcoin as the market enters its later stages, ultimately retaining only spot positions. If a red divergence appears, he will cease participation.

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